2017 May 05: New Hampshire Business Review: Eversource, UConn partner with Plymouth State on predictive weather model
2017 May 02: Concord Monitor: PSU, Eversource to use big data to better predict storms that cause power outages
- “We’re identifying indications that are correlated with past events,” said Jason Cordeira, assistant professor of meteorology, as he launched into a quick explanation of how the school uses 84 linked computers to crunch weather data from myriad sensors, a process so computation-heavy that a single run can take 12 hours. Those correlations will then be used to create mathematical models and applied to weather patterns to see how well they line up with what winds actually do to power supplies.
2017 January 31: News Deeply: Water Deeply: Atmospheric Rivers: Five Breakthroughs in Analyzing West-Coast Storms
- "Meteorologists had no way to tell where an atmospheric river would strike, how wet it would be, or for how long. Now they have a variety of tools that help provide those answers."
- "Now, that window has grown quite a bit. Forecasters can now estimate storm intensity and rainfall as much as 10 days out. And within five days, they can start to tell us something about where the atmospheric river will strike the coast. That’s a big stride from just a few years ago, when forecasters would often liken an atmospheric river to a “loose fire hose” flailing around and gushing water unpredictably... Ralph said researchers can now predict within 500- 600 miles (805-965km) where an atmospheric river will make landfall, and they’re working to shrink that range. For instance, their computer models can now plot the likelihood that an atmospheric river will strike each degree of latitude on the Pacific Coast, from Baja California to Alaska. " <-- In reference to the AR Landfall Tool!
2016 November 18: CA DWR Spotlight
2016 November: DWR publication on Improving Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting for Water Management
- DWR: "[The AR Landfall Tool] research product from the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography shows the magnitude, probability, and timing of atmospheric river conditions along the West Coast based on NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System weather model. Although the weather model is run out to 16 days, its skill after the first week is low. One pathway to improving S2S forecasting is to improve the ability to predict atmospheric river storms at longer timescales."
2015 March 03: Plymouth State University and NOAA Study West Coast Winter Storms: Team develops forecast tools to improve weather forecasts
- PSU: "After graduating from Plymouth State University with a bachelor’s in meteorology, Cordeira began work on atmospheric rivers with the Water Cycle Branch of the Earth Systems Research Laboratory at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Boulder, CO. He returned to his alma mater in 2013 to teach, and shortly thereafter received grant funding from NOAA and the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, to continue his research."
- PSU: "Cordeira, the lead weather forecaster for the CalWater 2015 campaign, developed a suite of forecast tools to better anticipate atmospheric river conditions over the eastern North Pacific. The campaign goals were twofold: to support operational activities and flight-planning activities and to advise on water supply and water resource management issues impacted by atmospheric rivers along the West Coast."
2015 February 09: Natural Gas Prices and Extreme Winters
- NOAA NCDC: A paper coauthored by a team of NCDC and Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites–North Carolina scientists, along with scientists in academia and the private sector, explores how natural gas prices react to temperatures in the Midwest and East regions of the United States during the winters of 2011–2012 and 2013–2014.
- [Schreck et al.] demonstrates how meteorologists currently use weather and climate data, like NOAA’s Climate Data Records, to understand long-term trends in temperatures and teleconnections to provide more accurate and timely long-range weather forecasts. Ultimately, the fluctuations in temperature and subsequent demand for natural gas in 2011–2012 and 2013–2014 highlight the susceptibility of our economy to changing weather patterns.
2015 February 09: As Extreme Weather Increases, A Push for Advanced Forecasts
- Yale360: "Jason Cordeira, a meteorology professor at Plymouth State University in New Hampshire and lead forecaster on the CalWater 2015 project, combined statistics from an ensemble of 21 weather models to create an atmospheric river Landfall Tool. A pre-test serendipitously coincided with the December atmospheric river — with worthy results. “For a number of different reasons, the dry run was very, very successful,” said Cordeira, who worked with colleagues from NOAA and Scripps. “We saw the potential for an atmospheric river out nine, 10 days in advance.” The resolution was so clear that forecasters could see where the storm would blow ashore a full week before it landed."
2015 February 05: Infoporn: Forecasting a River of Atmospheric Water
- Wired: "A weather model starts with the initial conditions: wind, moisture, and temperature,” says Marty Ralph, an atmospheric scientist at UC San Diego. These data points, collected by fixed weather stations, satellites, and balloons, are averaged across chunks of land, each measuring six square miles in the mind of NOAA’s model. That averaging is one reasons forecasts can go awry: Blending all the readings across a six-mile-square pixel can obscure crucial inputs that alter scientists’ understanding of a weather system. “It’s like chaos theory, or you know, the thing where a butterfly flaps its wings and it causes a storm thousands of miles away,” says Jason Cordeira, who models weather at the Plymouth State University in New Hampshire."
2015 February 03: California drought: Big storm on the way for Northern California
- San Jose Mercury News: Forecast Precipitation Graphic
- Context: "Computer models and satellite images for this storm, a type of warm, powerful system known as an "atmospheric river," project that it could bring 10 inches or more -- similar to the big storms in mid-December -- to far Northern California towns near the Oregon border such as Redding."
2015 February 02: Plymouth State ‘Snow-Level’ Radar Unit Aims to Help Forecasters
2015 January 20: Plymouth State University Receives Snow Level Radar Grant; High Tech Research Will Help Winter Weather Forecasts
2015 January 16: Experiment Studying Major West Coast Winter Storms - Atmospheric Rivers - Kicks off this Week in California
- NOAA/ESRL PSD News: Forecast Graphics Contributions
2014 December 12: Scientists Use Major West Coast Winter Storm to Prepare for Upcoming Field Experiment
- NOAA/ESRL PSD News: “The weather forecasts for this winter storm and associated landfall of the atmospheric river were fantastic,” says CalWater meteorologist Jay Cordeira of Plymouth State University. “They suggested a high-impact event for California more than 5 days in advance. This storm and these forecasts gave us the perfect opportunity to field test several new forecast diagnostics for use in CalWater."
2014 December 10: Rain for Thirsty California
- USGS Front Page: "A new Center at UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography has established a regional effort on atmospheric rivers and other types of extreme weather and water events in the Western U.S. The Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) is developing an “AR Portal” with partners across the nation, including NOAA, California Department of Water Resources, Plymouth State University, and the USGS. The portal brings together advances in AR science, monitoring and prediction, and builds heavily on data from the new AR monitoring network installed across California, and takes unique advantage of existing USGS, NOAA and other monitoring and prediction systems by developing tools tailored to the AR phenomenon."
2014 November 04: How Typhoon Nuri is changing the weather forecast in North America
- Mashable: "According to [Archambault] as well as Jason Cordeira, a meteorology professor at Plymouth State University in New Hampshire, the risk of extreme weather across North America goes up about five to 10 days after a recurving West Pacific typhoon in October or November. During this time frame, the jet stream tends to be stronger, typhoons tend to be stronger, and upstream areas of low pressure tend to be more intense as well. [...] Cordeira said in an interview that recurving typhoons can lead to highly varied weather patterns in the U.S. as the jet stream waves move through, with unusual warmth followed by sudden cold. That’s what is expected this week across the eastern half of the country, with a warmup followed by another taste of winter. Nuri's jet stream interactions, combined with other factors, may mean that the eastern U.S. will see multiple rounds of cold weather during the next several weeks at least, with warmer and drier conditions in the West.
2014 October 02: Students Research Severe Weather
- Hobart and William Smith Colleges Daily Update: One of the trips was to the White Mountains. At the Mount Washington Observatory in New Hampshire -- where in April of 1934, the highest recorded wind speed of 231 miles per hour was observed -- HWS students toured the research facility and experienced the severe wind the mountain is known for. [...] "While we were there we experienced 70 mile per hour winds and it was a struggle to stand," says Metz, who sees trips like this as an opportunity for an exchange of ideas and growth within the scientific community. At Plymouth State University, also in New Hampshire, HWS students attended and presented at a mini-symposium with PSU graduate students to discuss each other's research.
2014 March 31: Who Rules California's Russian River? Part 1: All Eyes on the Storm
- Climate.gov: Image credit.
- On February 5, forecasts by NOAA (image left) predicted a well-defined atmospheric river would develop in the tropical Pacific and transport moisture into the mid-latitudes near Northern California. Four days later, satellite observations show an atmospheric river hitting the region (image right). While the forecasts were able to signal this event several days ahead of time, the predicted landfall position varied significantly on the scale of several watersheds in California. SSMIS observation data provided by Gary Wick (NOAA) and GFS forecast data obtained from NOMADS courtesy of M. Ralph (Scripps) and J. Cordeira (Plymouth State).
A teaching moment on the monsoon as shown in the Experience Education video commercial by Plymouth State University. Watch the video on the right.
More teachable moments caught on video as part of PSU's "see further up here" campaign. Watch the video here.
Social Media "Shout Outs"
Mostly a collection of screenshots from Twitter/Facebook and the like that use my forecast graphics...